Water Tera Diao ChanTier 2
at CMB Regionals
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.3%
avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1162
· median 1162
· range 1162–1162
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1162
Q3 1353
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Genbu | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Diao Chan decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
